Outlook
We are heavily committed to implementing the strategic guidelines set out in the 2023-2026 Plan, leveraging on the distinctive traits of our business model and on the proven ability to deal with unfavourable economic cycles by turning criticalities into opportunities
Having delivered on the 2019-23 Strategic Plan (despite the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war), the Group is now committed to implementing its new 2023-26, “One Brand-One Culture” Strategic Plan unveiled in May 2023.
The Group’s strong positioning in business sectors offering opportunities for growth, its unceasing investments in distribution, innovation and talent, the selective increase in lendings coupled with the capital optimization policies being deployed, and the ongoing control of both asset quality and operating costs, means that Mediobanca can face with confidence a macroeconomic scenario that is still characterized by uncertainty, with low growth expected in the leading European economies given the level of interest rates and inflation that will remain high at least until the end of 1H FY 2023-24.
For FY 2023-24 the Mediobanca Group confirms its capability to deliver growth in revenues, earnings and shareholder remuneration, in line with the trajectory outlined in the new 2023-26 “One Brand – One Culture” Strategic Plan.
The guidance is as follows:
- Growth in TFAs, with NNM of €9-10bn per annum; RWAs stable, with selective growth in lendings and the launch of optimization actions; Healthy growth in Group revenues, driven by increases in NII and fee income (the latter set to increase significantly on the back of the solid performance in WM plus the consolidation of Arma as part of the CIB division expected to be completed in Autumn 2023);
- Cost/income ratio to be kept at around 43-44%: the growth in revenues will be used to drive enhancement of both the Group’s workforces and platforms;
- Cost of risk flat at ~50 bps, considering overlays;
- Significant reduction in one-off items, with only the DGS provision remaining (approx. €25m);
- Increase in shareholder remuneration, with the cash payout to be maintained at 70%, and launch of an approx. €200m share buyback and cancellation programme;
- Capital ratios to remain solid and above 15.5%, including the effects of the acquisitions and the share buyback scheme.
